Is ”Military Strategy” Becoming an Oxymoron?

In the contemporary strategic context the most likely operations involving the military are responses to complex emergencies in one form or the other. Although complex emergency is a terribly wide term involving everything from natural disasters to civil wars, the responses to them all have in common highly complex political objectives. Military operations are therefore no longer about defeating the enemy or "winning", it is about introducing democracy, assisting humanitarian relief operations, and to restore security in failing states. Such operations require the use of all instruments of power – economic, diplomatic and military.

The problem is that military strategists by tradition are not very good at planning military operations in order to achieve political effects. Instead, the traditional notion is that where diplomacy and politics end, wars begin. When the war is over diplomats and the politicians are welcomed back to negotiate peace agreements and to clean up the mess. However, the results of these traditional ways of war in a new context can be seen in the US operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both were great military victories followed up by weak and rather incompetent post-conflict operations. This would obviously be fine if the objectives did not stretch further than toppling the regimes, but in both cases the aims of the operations involved introducing stability and democracy – something that has hardly been successful in either case despite recent elections.

The question is how one plans for intended political effect rather than victory. It certainly requires politicians with an understanding of how to use all instruments of power - including the military. Sending peacekeepers in order to give the impression of “doing something” is not fair to anyone involved. It also requires enormous understanding of how military operations affects foreign leaders and populations. It moreover requires deep political understanding on the level of each individual soldier. Everyone involved must understand the consequences of his/her actions, especially since evertything is done under the watchful eyes of global media. Perhaps must planning for political effect requires a new breed of civilians strategists and operatives with and understanding of military affairs. At this point in time there simply are no such people.

Strategy will always have to involve all instruments of power and planning the operations of one instrument in isolation is like a carpenter using a hammer without nails. The complex political objectives will never be accomplished. The highest level where military operations can be executed in isolation from the other instruments of power is the tactical level of up to battalion size units. The term military strategy is therefore useless as strategic level planning and execution must always include all instruments of power. The consequences of this argument are that not only must civilian and military strategists work together on the highests levels, they should also form joint staffs in the operational and perhaps even tactical level command centres. Not a very popular idea in an organisation that argues that the divide between political decisions and military implementation is the very foundation of their professionalism.

(c) Robert Egnell

Election Safari on Zanzibar

Yesterday saw the politically charged paradise island of Zanzibar going to the polls for the third time since multiparty system democracy was introduced in Tanzania. The last two elections on the island were marred by extreme violence and election manipulation, and many commentators feared that this would be the case again. However, despite some minor incidents involving opposition supporters and the police, and despite a few accusations of minor manipulation, the elections on Zanzibar seem to have been a relative democratic success. It nevertheless remains to be seen how the parties will react to the results that are expected within three days of the poll.

There were some rather ridiculous scenes played out on the island as 35,000 security forces in combination with international observers, journalists, and tourists were all trying to get a piece of the action. As soon as there were reports on problems at a polling station it was flooded by observers. Every organisation apparently needed several representatives at the sight and at the same time buses were passing by with tourists waving and taking photos of the queuing voters.

Despite the relative calm and despite very few accusations of irregularities, the debriefings are currently all about violence and possible election manipulation. One of the basic features of a good election observer is the starting-point that he/she wants the election to go well and no have. This does not seem to be the case here where every little incident is blown up to enormous proportions with every new “expert” on Zanzibar smirking to the words “I told you so”.

(c) Robert Egnell

The Developmental Brain Drain of Africa

Much has been written about the so called brain drain of third world countries, especially in Africa. The idea is that young professionals who have been costly to train move to, and thereby benefit, western countries by pursuing careers away abroad. Valuable intellectual capital and tax revenue is supposedly lost in this manner. That young well-trained professionals are leaving may at first sight seem as a big problem, but very seldom you hear about serious lacks of professionals in the third world. Instead there is a job market filled with overqualified professionals, competing for whatever low-paid and over-taxed existences they can get their hands on. Financially, the argument is also dodgy as the diasporas in the world provide enormous revenue for their home countries through official and unofficial remittances. For a very compelling argument against the brain drain theory, please read fellow writer Martin Kimani’s excellent article "If You Think Africa is Suffering From a Brain Drain, Your Brain is Drained", on http://bulletsandhoney.blogspot.com.

However, there is a brain drain of Africa that is very real, but is a local one. As a lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam I see bright young student graduate and start looking for meaningful and most preferably well-paid occupations. Tanzania unfortunately does not provide large numbers of interesting jobs for highly qualified young professionals, and education in Tanzania does not have the reputation that would make you an obvious choice in the traditional brain drain move to the west. So how do these young professionals make a living for themselves? Obviously, like all entrepreneurial young people they look for the place where the money is at. And that, my friends, is within the development aid business.

Instead of spending their intellectual capital on creating a small business, or improving local farming methods, they spend their lives coming up with development projects proposals that might catch the donor community. Obviously, such proposals rarely reflect real needs of the country, but instead reflects the latest trends in development support. Does anyone seriously think that Tanzanians feel very strongly about “democratisation through youth participation in local councils”, just to name an example? I may sound very cynical, but it is frustrating to see a bright student come in to your office asking for an idea to a development project that I think the donor community would support. There are obviously some real idealists with a mission out there – it’s just that I have not really met them yet!

How do these projects, run by local and international NGOs benefit Africa? In my opinion 40 years of development aid without any development is evidence as strong as any, that aid should have been scrapped as a development concept long ago. However, that is a different a much larger debate. This time it is about the brain drain, and it just makes me sad to see such effort and such talent going into what are most often useless projects, for everyone but those lucky enough to have received funding for their NGO and for desk officers in international organisations and development agencies who obviously make their living in this manner.

I do not for a second blame young Africans for pursuing this track. The amount of money available for a relatively little effort should be incentive enough for anyone, regardless if you are African, British or Swedish. Instead, the international development community is to blame. Through a relentless belief in the benefit of funding corrupt African governments who have learned to talk the talk, and to more or less useful and always short-term NGO projects, the international community is creating a completely skewed local market for young professionals. It becomes easier to make money through funding for an NGO on small business problem management in East Africa, than starting one yourself. What do you think young bright professionals choose?

(c) Robert Egnell

Elections in Tanzania postponed

Tomorrow, on October 30, Tanzania was scheduled to hold national elections for the third time since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1992. The last week has seen the final sprints in the election campaigns of the political parties, the arrival of national and international observers, and final practical preparations of the election by the National Electoral Commission (NEC). However, in the middle of Thursday's intense preparations the news arrived that the vice-presidential candidate, Rajabu Jumbe of the opposition party, Chadema, had passed away after a short period of illness. The election laws thereby required the NEC to postpone the elections by a minimum of 21 days in order to allow Chadema to nominate and introduce a new candidate. After long deliberations the NEC finally decided to postpone all national elections until December 18, including the parliamentary and local council elections scheduled for the same day.

The decision is an anti-climax for the political parties and the Tanzanian voters. It is also an economic problem as many of the processes will have to be redone in 6 weeks time. However, on the tourist paradise, yet painfully poor and politically charged, islands of Zanzibar, the election preparations continue under intense monitoring by the national and international observers. As a federal union, the elections for Zanzibari presidential post and parliament were also scheduled this weekend. These election are to be held as planned according to the Zanzibari Electoral Commission (ZEC).

In the pervious election in 1995 and 2000, Zanzibar was the only real problem for the newly created democratic system. Reports of straightforward manipulation of the results by the ruling party, CCM, led to violent demonstrations and deadly clashes with the police. The run-up to this year’s election has in many ways imitated the previous ones with similar violent incidents around election rallies and clashes with the police. There have also been reports of manipulation in the process of voter registration.

The political tension on Zanzibar stems from an almost exact split of the voters in half along ethnic and social lines stemming from the colonial days. Since the 1964 revolution the parties have been divided and the ruling party has in an obvious manner supported its own group. This has led to a deeply rooted resentment and mistrust among the population. As the opposition now are in a position to challenge the position of the ruling party, threats are made in all directions. Zanzibar's President, Amani Abeid Karume, argued during the election campaign that his party (CCM) will always be a revolutionary party unafraid of using the military. "If necessary, we are prepared to repeat the revolution from 1964." The statement was watered down the following day by the party secretary, but it still provides a good example of the intimidation tactics that are used in Zanzibar. On the other side, the main opposition party, CUF, has early in the campaign argued that they will not accept an election result that shows defeat and have threatened with riots in case this happens.

The last week before the election some of the tensions have nevertheless eased a bit and the voters register has finally been verified. The opposition has encouraged its voters to peacefully leave the polling stations and go home after casting their votes, and thereby not give the police an excuse to intervene. However, it is impossible to predict the events on election Sunday and after the presentation of the election results. The big question is how far the incumbent government is willing to go in order to remain in power, and how the opposition will react to a possible defeat. It should in relation to these troubles be mentioned that Zanzibar is a very small part of Tanzania and that only one out of Tanzania's 35 million citizens live on the islands. The Union government’s responsibility for peace on Zanzibar nevertheless remains a contested issue.

On the Tanzanian main land the situation is completely different and especially much less tense. The explanation is simply that the ruling party, CCM, by tradition have enjoyed a very clear majority of support among the population. This year the Tanzanians have nevertheless benefited from a relatively lively election race that in combination with good preparations by the NEC have provided the conditions for free and fair elections. As an example a permanent voters register has been produced that according to the NEC includes 96%, or 15.9 million of the eligible voters.

Another positive aspect is the fact that the current Tanzanian President, Benjamin Mkapa, is stepping aside after his two terms without even mentioning the possibility of a constitutional changes that could keep him in his position. This is of course rather unusual in the region in which most recently the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has made constitutional changes in order to further extend his 25 years of rule.

Since the almost catastrophic election in Ethiopia earlier this year, Tanzania is one of very few remaining examples of African countries moving in a both economically and politically positive direction. This means that the donor community yearly invests enormous capital for the continued development of the country. With the 40 years of economic and intellectual capital invested in Tanzania's development, it is clear that an election of violence and manipulation would be a huge disappointment as well as the sign of a failed development strategy in Tanzania and in general. This is nevertheless a point that deserves much more attention in future blogs.

/Robert Egnell